In our efforts at iasoberg™.com (pronounced ice-o-berg) to define a model that describes an influence in, on and near the Earth that may cause the Allais Effect1, we have observed a very significant correlation between 1) particular configurations of an exploratory model (Iasoberg™ Model) in conjunction with specific ranges of latitude of the obliquity of the lunar orbit (Earth-Moon System 18.6 Yr Nodal cycle) and 2) 100+ damaging wind event days (DWD) in the USA. The 50 knot/hr event data sources used for this analysis are the NOAA Severe Weather Database (1950-2016) and Severe Weather Summaries (2000-2017).
A thorough analysis of 280,000+ damaging wind events assessed DWDs from 1970 to 2017, to identify where more than 100 and 150 damaging wind events occurred in one day. The 24 hour DWD criteria used was in accordance with the NOAA Severe Weather Prediction Center reporting system for observed severe weather events, namely (1200UT on the day to 1159UT the next day).
From 1/1/1970 to 12/31/2017 981 100+ DWDs occurred and are recorded in the above databases. This period spans 17,532 days. The application of the Nodal filter based on the ranges of obliquity of the lunar orbit resulted in 7650 days out of the 17,532 days identified for further analysis which included 441 of the 981 100+ DWDs. The combination of the Iasoberg Model and Nodal filter resulted in a further reduction of the potential outbreak days to 3633 days from the 7650 Nodal filtered days.
The observed 441 100+ DWDs were further delineated to indentify 150+ DWDs, 219 such days were found. This step was taken to assess if the analysis would reveal any statistical significance between the severity of weather patterns associated with 100+ and 150+ DWDs. The observed 100+ and 150+ DWDs were then tested (chi-square) against the same days in the 3633 day dataset identified by particular configurations of the Iasoberg™ Model which fell within the specific ranges of the obliquity of the lunar orbit. The statistical results are as follows:
- p-value of 0.0039 resulted from 125 of the 150+ DWDs out of 219 occurring on the 3633 potential hail event days within the set of 7650 Nodal filtered days
- p-value of 0.0270 resulted from 219 of the 100+ DWDs out of 441 occurring on the 3633 potential hail event days within the set of 7650 Nodal filtered days
Data from the above databases indicate damaging wind events between 1996 to 2016 resulted in losses of $7.7 billion (property insurance claims); these losses don’t include crop losses!
The Iasoberg™ Model Nodal Cycle protocol identifying potential 100+ DWDs is the basis of an ongoing project and the statistical results are current as of instant of this abstract. Long range forecasting provided by this protocol may lead to measures with the potential to mitigate future loss of life and injury as well limiting some damage.