Continental USA Severe Weather Forecasts

Summary of 2015 Iasoberg Model Forecast and Severe Weather Prediction Center Reports

Summary Tables of 2015 Severe Weather Forecasts based on the output of the Iasoberg Model.  Bold Red dates were 25 days that were predicted in December 2014 when the forecast for 2015 was generated.

Summary of Reports

2014 Summary Hail Wind Tornadoes from Spread Sheet Forecast Legend

2015 Hail Chart

 

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30 June 2014 Update of 2014 Iasoberg Model Severe Weather Forecast for Continental USA

Here is an update of the Iasoberg Model 2014 severe weather forecasts for continental USA versus the Hail, Severe Wind and Tornado events recorded by the NOAA’s Severe Weather Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma. A coloured/patterned cell indicates a day identified by the model as a potential day (forecasted-black text and predicted-red text for 72+ hail event day only) with the number of the events observed on that day shown in the cell.

As of June 30 2014, a statistical analysis indicates that there is only 1 chance 29 that the correlation of this forecast for and observation of 72+ hail event days over the last 4 and 1/2 years is a coincidence.

20140701 End of Month Update of Iasoberg Model Forecast Chart

20140701 End of Month Update of Iasoberg Model Forecast

Iasoberg Model Forecast Update at 31 May 2014

Some of you good folk might be wondering how the output of the Iasoberg model is reflecting the what is happening on the ground. You will find below a series of tables and a chart that provides that information.

The coloured cells indicated that events on the day hail, wind and tornadoes occurred on days identified by the model. The red dates in the tables indicate that these days were identified as predicted days for a large number of hail events not a forecast for the potential for such events.

The chart displays the hail activity in 2014 vs the forecast make by the model updated 31 May 2014.

2014 Severe Weather Observations update 0531

Severe Weather Forecast based on Iasoberg Model Update at 31 May 2014

Some of you good folk might be wondering how the output of the Iasoberg Model is reflecting the what is happening on the ground. You will find below a series of tables and a chart that provides that information.

The coloured cells indicated that events on the day hail, wind and tornadoes occurred on days identified by the model. The red dates in the tables indicate that these days were identified as predicted days for a large number of hail events not a forecast for the potential for such events.

The chart displays the hail activity in 2014 vs the forecast make by the model updated to the end of May 20142014 Severe Weather Observations update 0531 Chart.

June 2-10 2014 Severe Weather Forecast/Predictions for Continental USA

Here is the severe weather forecast and predictions for continental USA from June 2nd to June 10th. Tornado days June 2 and 10th. Tornado and hail days June 3rd, 7th, 8th and 9th predicted. June 4th hail only predicted. Around the 6th of June the Solar-Earth L5 Lagrangian point will be parallel with the axis between the Solar Barycenter and the Sun SBlon=L5y shown in the table.201406 2_11 Severe Weather Forecasts

Severe Weather Forecast and Predictions for the Period April 20th to 30th

Severe Weather Forecast and Predictions for the Period April 20th to 30th

OK here is the severe weather forecast for the continental USA for the period 201404 20 to 30. It is important to note that this period is between a lunar eclipse and solar eclipse on the 29th. So we have Tornado outbreak potential on 20th and 29th. Tornadoes and large number of hail events on 21-23rd and on the 28th. Large number of hail events (72+) on the 24th and 27th.

You will note on the forecast spread sheet that the 27th and 28th dates are in bold red font. These dates are predictions for a large number of hail events which have been generated by the Iasoberg Model. There are an average of 25 of these days per year based on NOAA data. The dates predicted by the model range from late April to mid July and vary from year to year. The above dates are the first ones for 2014.