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Analysis of 280,000+ (1970 to 2017) USA Damaging Wind Events Found a Significant Correlation with the Iasoberg™ Model and Nodal Cycle May 15, 2018

In our efforts at iasoberg™.com (pronounced ice-o-berg) to define a model that describes an influence in, on and near the Earth that may cause the Allais Effect1, we have observed a very significant correlation between 1) particular configurations of an exploratory model (Iasoberg™ Model) in conjunction with specific ranges of latitude of the obliquity of the lunar orbit (Earth-Moon System 18.6 Yr Nodal cycle) and 2) 100+ damaging wind event days (DWD) in the USA.  The 50 knot/hr event data sources used for this analysis are the NOAA Severe Weather Database (1950-2016) and Severe Weather Summaries (2000-2017).

A thorough analysis of 280,000+ damaging wind  events assessed DWDs from 1970 to 2017, to identify where more than 100 and 150 damaging wind  events occurred in one day.  The 24 hour DWD criteria used was in accordance with the NOAA Severe Weather Prediction Center reporting system for observed severe weather events, namely (1200UT on the day to 1159UT the next day).

From 1/1/1970 to 12/31/2017 981 100+ DWDs occurred and are recorded in the above databases.  This period spans 17,532 days.  The application of the Nodal filter based on the ranges of obliquity of the lunar orbit resulted in 7650 days out of the 17,532 days identified for further analysis which included 441 of the 981 100+ DWDs.  The combination of the Iasoberg Model and Nodal filter resulted in a further reduction of the potential outbreak days to 3633 days from the 7650 Nodal filtered days.

The observed 441 100+ DWDs were further delineated to indentify 150+ DWDs, 219 such days were found.  This step was taken to assess if the analysis would reveal any statistical significance between the severity of weather patterns associated with 100+ and 150+ DWDs.  The observed 100+ and 150+ DWDs were then tested (chi-square) against the same days in the 3633 day dataset identified by particular configurations of the Iasoberg™ Model which fell within the specific ranges of the obliquity of the lunar orbit.  The statistical results are as follows:

  • p-value of 0.0039 resulted from 125 of the 150+ DWDs out of 219 occurring on the 3633 potential hail event days within the set of 7650 Nodal filtered days
  • p-value of 0.0270 resulted from 219 of the 100+ DWDs out of 441 occurring on the 3633 potential hail event days within the set of 7650 Nodal filtered days

Data from the above databases indicate damaging wind events between 1996 to 2016 resulted in losses of $7.7 billion (property insurance claims); these losses don’t include crop losses!

The Iasoberg™ Model Nodal Cycle protocol identifying potential 100+ DWDs is the basis of an ongoing project and the statistical results are current as of instant of this abstract.  Long range forecasting provided by this protocol may lead to measures with the potential to mitigate future loss of life and injury as well limiting some damage.

Nodal Cycle and google Earth from Abstract for Wind Study

1    Múnera, Héctor A., ed. (May 2011). Should the Laws of Gravitation be Reconsidered?: The Scientific Legacy of Maurice Allais. Apeiron. ISBN 978-0986492655.
 Edward OBERG
B.Sc. Mech. & Ind. Eng.
Uni. of Minnesota USA
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Analysis of 300,000+ (1980 to 2017) USA Hail Events Found a Significant Correlation with the Iasoberg™ Model and Nodal Cycle April 30, 2018

In our efforts at iasoberg™.com (pronounced ice-o-berg) to define a model that describes an influence in, on and near the Earth that may cause the Allais Effect1, we have observed a very significant correlation between 1) particular configurations of an exploratory model (Iasoberg™ Model) in conjunction with specific ranges of latitude of the obliquity of the lunar orbit (Earth-Moon System 18.6 Yr Nodal cycle) and 2) 90+2 hail event days (HED) in the USA.  The .75+ inch hail event data sources used for this analysis are the NOAA Severe Weather Database (1950-2016) and Severe Weather Summaries (2000-2017).

A thorough analysis of 300,000+ hail events assessed HEDs from 1980 to 2017, to identify where more than 60 and 90 hail events occurred in one day.  The 24 hour HED criteria used was in accordance with the NOAA Severe Weather Prediction Center reporting system for observed severe weather events, namely (1200UT on the day to 1159UT the next day).

From 1/1/1980 to 12/31/2017 1425 60+ HEDs occurred and are recorded in the above databases.  This period spans 13,879 days.  The application of the Nodal filter based on the ranges of obliquity of the lunar orbit resulted in 5210 days out of the 13879 days identified for further analysis which included 587 of the 1425 60+ HEDs.  The combination of the Iasoberg Model and Nodal filter resulted in a further reduction of the potential outbreak days to 2057 days from the 5210 Nodal filtered days.

The observed 587 60+ HEDs were further delineated to indentify 90+ HEDs, 335 such days were found.  This step was taken to assess if the analysis would reveal any statistical significance between the severity of weather patterns associated with 60+ and 90+ HEDs.  The observed 60+ and 90+ HEDs were then tested (chi-square) against the same days in the 2057 day dataset identified by particular configurations of the Iasoberg™ Model which fell within the specific ranges of the obliquity of the lunar orbit.  The statistical results are as follows:

  • p-value of 0.0165 resulted from 153 of the 90+ HEDs out of 335 occurring on the 2057 potential hail event days within the set of 5210 Nodal filtered days
  • p-value of 0.2352 resulted from 245 of the 60+ HEDs out of 587 occurring on the 2057 potential hail event days within the set of 5210 Nodal filtered days

From 2000 to 2014 hail storms resulted in losses of $56 billion (property insurance claims) and approximately $1 billion per year (crop losses)!3

The Iasoberg™ Model Nodal Cycle protocol identifying potential 90+ HEDs is the basis of an ongoing project and the statistical results are current as of instant of this abstract.  Long range forecasting provided by this protocol may lead to measures with the potential to mitigate future loss of life and injury as well limiting some damage.

Nodal Cycle and Google Earth Hail Abstract

1    Múnera, Héctor A., ed. (May 2011). Should the Laws of Gravitation be Reconsidered?: The Scientific Legacy of Maurice Allais. Apeiron. ISBN 978-0986492655.
2    60+ tornado events used as the number to determine a HED was employed on advice from a professional meteorologist.
3    A report from the Insurance Information Institute – New York, NY USA – https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-hail

Edward OBERG

B.Sc. Mech. & Ind. Eng.

Uni. of Minnesota USA

Analysis of 60,000 (1950 to 2017) USA Tornado Events Found a Significant Correlation with the Iasoberg™ Model and Nodal Cycle April 30, 2018

In our efforts at iasoberg™.com (pronounced ice-o-berg) to define a model that describes an influence in, on and near the Earth that may cause the Allais Effect1, we have observed a very significant correlation between 1) particular configurations of an exploratory model (Iasoberg™ Model) in conjunction with specific ranges of latitude of the obliquity of the lunar orbit (Earth-Moon System 18.6 Yr Nodal cycle) and 2) 20+2 event tornado outbreak days (TOD) in the USA.  The tornado data source is the NOAA Storm Events Database Data for tornado data, available from 01/01/1950 to 12/31/2017.

A thorough analysis of 60,000+ tornado events assessed TODs from 1950 to the present, to identify where more than 20 and 25 tornado events occurred in one day.  The 24 hour TOD criteria used was in accordance with the NOAA Severe Weather Prediction Center reporting system for observed severe weather events, namely (1200UT on the day to 1159UT the next day).

From 1/1/1950 to 12/31/2017 586 20+ TODs occurred and are recorded in the above database.  This period spans 24,837 days.  The application of the Nodal filter based on the ranges of obliquity of the lunar orbit resulted in 15370 days out of the 24,837 days identified for further analysis which included 400 of the 586 20+ TODs.  The combination of the Iasoberg Model and Nodal filter resulted in a further reduction of the potential outbreak days to 7320 days from the 15370 Nodal filtered days.

The observed 400 20+ TODs were further delineated to indentify 25+ TODs, 256 such days were found.  This step was taken to assess if the analysis would reveal any statistical significance between the severity of weather patterns associated with 20+ and 25+ TODs.  The observed 20+ and 25+ TODs were then tested (chi-square) against the same days in the 7320 day dataset identified by particular configurations of the Iasoberg™ Model which fell within the specific ranges of the obliquity of the lunar orbit.  The statistical results are as follows:

  • p-value of 0.0078 resulted from 143 of the 25+TODs out of 256 occurring on the 7320 potential outbreak days within the set of 15370 Nodal filtered days
  • p-value of 0.0096 resulted from 216 of the 20+TODs out of 400 occurring on the 7320 potential outbreak days within the set of 15370 Nodal filtered days

From 1950 to 2011 tornadoes have killed approximately 6000 people in the USA and resulted in losses of $293 billion (population and income), $339 billion (housing unit and income) and $449 billion (GDP)!3

The Iasoberg™ Model Nodal Cycle protocol identifying potential 20+ TODs is the basis of an ongoing project and the statistical results are current as of instant of this abstract.  Long range forecasting provided by this protocol may lead to measures with the potential to mitigate future loss of life and injury as well limiting some damage.

Nodal Cycle and Iasoberg Model Tornado Abstract.jpg

1    Múnera, Héctor A., ed. (May 2011). Should the Laws of Gravitation be Reconsidered?: The Scientific Legacy of Maurice Allais. Apeiron. ISBN 978-0986492655.
2    20+ tornado events used as the number to determine a TOD was employed on advice from a professional meteorologist.
3    An overview of the modern tornado record, 1950 through present (maps) MAY 10, 2017 by K WHEATLEY in TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY
Edward OBERG
B.Sc. Mech. & Ind. Eng.
Uni. of Minnesota USA

The Sun, Astrophysics, Earthquakes, and Earth Changes

For readers who are interested in postings re the output of the Iasoberg Model please follow the Facebook link below to the The Sun, Astrophysics, Earthquakes, and Earth Changes group.  I am a member.  It is a closed group but membership is welcome to all.  I post frequently on this site with my observations and forecasts.  Please feel free to contact me at obergeau@yahoo.com if you have any questions or comments about the Iasoberg Model or iasoberg.com.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/420503074813651/

Overview and Future Direction of the Iasoberg Model

Author Ed Oberg

Ed Oberg received a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering and Industrial Engineering from University of Minnesota.  He has had an eclectic career working as a professional engineer and project manager at Honeywell and Control Data in the USA, as well as with private companies and the National Occupational Health and Safety Commission in Australia.

In 1974 he developed a special interest in celestial mechanics which led him to undertake research work in the area of gravitational anomalies. His work resulted in the development of the Iasoberg Model. iasoberg.com was established by Ed Oberg to facilitate and promote research into the Allais Effect, as well as distributing the resulting findings of this work.

Link to article

https://www.facebook.com/download/340947906073913/Overview%20and%20Future%20Direction%20of%20the%20Iasoberg%20Model%20revised.pdf