30 June 2014 Update of 2014 Iasoberg Model Severe Weather Forecast for Continental USA

Here is an update of the Iasoberg Model 2014 severe weather forecasts for continental USA versus the Hail, Severe Wind and Tornado events recorded by the NOAA’s Severe Weather Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma. A coloured/patterned cell indicates a day identified by the model as a potential day (forecasted-black text and predicted-red text for 72+ hail event day only) with the number of the events observed on that day shown in the cell.

As of June 30 2014, a statistical analysis indicates that there is only 1 chance 29 that the correlation of this forecast for and observation of 72+ hail event days over the last 4 and 1/2 years is a coincidence.

20140701 End of Month Update of Iasoberg Model Forecast Chart

20140701 End of Month Update of Iasoberg Model Forecast

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Iasoberg Model Forecast Update at 31 May 2014

Some of you good folk might be wondering how the output of the Iasoberg model is reflecting the what is happening on the ground. You will find below a series of tables and a chart that provides that information.

The coloured cells indicated that events on the day hail, wind and tornadoes occurred on days identified by the model. The red dates in the tables indicate that these days were identified as predicted days for a large number of hail events not a forecast for the potential for such events.

The chart displays the hail activity in 2014 vs the forecast make by the model updated 31 May 2014.

2014 Severe Weather Observations update 0531

Severe Weather Forecast based on Iasoberg Model Update at 31 May 2014

Some of you good folk might be wondering how the output of the Iasoberg Model is reflecting the what is happening on the ground. You will find below a series of tables and a chart that provides that information.

The coloured cells indicated that events on the day hail, wind and tornadoes occurred on days identified by the model. The red dates in the tables indicate that these days were identified as predicted days for a large number of hail events not a forecast for the potential for such events.

The chart displays the hail activity in 2014 vs the forecast make by the model updated to the end of May 20142014 Severe Weather Observations update 0531 Chart.

June 2-10 2014 Severe Weather Forecast/Predictions for Continental USA

Here is the severe weather forecast and predictions for continental USA from June 2nd to June 10th. Tornado days June 2 and 10th. Tornado and hail days June 3rd, 7th, 8th and 9th predicted. June 4th hail only predicted. Around the 6th of June the Solar-Earth L5 Lagrangian point will be parallel with the axis between the Solar Barycenter and the Sun SBlon=L5y shown in the table.201406 2_11 Severe Weather Forecasts

Cosmic Footprintology 101

Typical Cosmic Footprint with legend

Cosmic Footprintology 101
The purpose of the Cosmic Footprint chart is to facilitate the investigation of the correlation of particular configurations with various phenomena (events) that occur in our region of the Universe and specifically, those configurations that may relate to events in, on and near the Earth.

In order to interpret the Cosmic Footprint chart, you need to understand what the chart attempts to represent and its symbology. The chart represents the configuration of the significant celestial bodies, in our region of the known Universe, and the links/relationships between those bodies. On the Cosmic Footprint chart you will note a number of points and lines that display a configuration for a specific instant in time (Universal Time UT or in past parlance Greenwich Mean Time GMT).

Firstly the red dot in the center of the circle is the Sun. The blue lines emanating from the Sun at 90 degrees define the quadrants of 360 degrees of the celestial longitude. The blue line extending to the right of the screen with an arrow points to the First Point of Aries which marks 0 degrees longitude in the celestial sphere and is a well known marker in astronomy and celestial mechanics. You will also note that the 360 degree circle is divided up into 12 x 30 degrees segments by the blue and grey dotted lines emanating from the center of the chart.

Another set of quadrants are defined by the green lines at 90 degrees. These lines represent the location of these points with respect to the center of the galaxy, with the green line with arrow pointing downward to the center of the Milky Way galaxy.

Next we have two circles focused at the center of the chart. The inner circle represents the radius of the Sun = to 1. The outer circle is a qualitative representation the orbit of the Earth, for the purposes of displaying its position, ie longitude, with respect to the First Point of Aries. And the final circle is the small blue circle centered on the outer circle. This blue circle represents the orbit of the moon around the Earth.

Now we have the points on the chart to consider. As mentioned above, the large red dot in the center of the chart is the Sun. The black dot is where the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has calculated the center of the Solar System (SSBC) based on the movements of the planets in the solar system. The black dot can be located anywhere within the large circle depending on the configuration of the various bodies in the solar system. JPL has calculated that the location of the SSBC for 3000 BC to 3000 AD (for every third day ) and that data is available on their website . The blue dot on the small circle is the location of the Moon. The magenta dot is the position of the North Node of an astronomical axis where the planes of the Earth’s ecliptic and the Moon’s ecliptic intersect. That axis completes a counterclockwise revolution every 18.6 years. The brown dot on the outer circle is the location of the Earth on the outer circle which makes one revolution every 365.25 days.

We have 9 lines that represent the location/longitude of various celestial axis of interest in our galaxy, the solar system and Earth-Moon system. First the brown line from the center to the outer circle represents the axis between the Sun and Earth. The black line from the center to the black dot is the axis between the dynamic center of the Solar System and the Sun. The blue line from the center of the small circle represents the axis between the Earth and Moon. The magenta line represents axis where the orbital planes of the Earth and Moon intersect. The red line across the small blue circle represents the orientation of the Solar Earth Centered Iasoberg (vertical red lines in the Global Iasoberg Pattern – GIP). The green line across the small blue circle represents the orientation of the Galactic Earth Centered Iasoberg (vertical green lines in the GIP). The two black lines (solid and dashed) in the blue circle at 60 degrees to the Sun Earth axis (brown line) represent the axis between La Grangian points L4 and L5 respectively, which are associated La Grangian Field that is a result of the motion of the Earth around the Sun. And finally, the solid orange line in a NE/SW direction is the Iasovector, which has been determined by observations of the location of various celestial bodies/axis near it at the time of significant geophysical events.

Solar Earth Lagrangian L4/L5 Points Relation to Solar Galactic Center Axis during Annual Cycle

Annual 8 Point Dates with L4-L5 points relative to Solar Galactic Axis ver2

This is a public service announcement from iasoberg.com. As some members will have noted I have mentioned the cosmic footprint for various instants of interest in previous posts. I have also included in some of those analyses a reference to the Lagrangian Field which is a celestial mechanical reality, in particular the field between the Sun and the Earth.

I have attached a diagram which displays the days of interest during the Earth’s annual cycle around the Sun where the axis to the L4/L5 points (solid/dashed black lines) of the the above field are parallel or orthogonal to the Solar Galactic Center axis (Green Line). You will note that I have included two rectangles in the diagram to demonstrate the parallel and/or orthogonality (great word) of the L4/L5 axis with the Solar Galactic axis.

These configurations occur 8 times a year, around the following dates: Jan 16, Feb 15, Apr 17, May 17, Jul 19, Aug 19, Oct 20 and Nov 20. These dates are identified in the diagram along with the Earth’s location during the annual cycle.

You may want to print the diagram and pin it up next to you calendar. How these configurations may or may not influence geophysical phenomena on Earth or throughout the solar system are some of the areas of research conducted at iasoberg.com.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_point

Solar System Barycenter Astrophysics 101

The Earth Doesn’t Actually Orbit The Sun?

You were taught that Earth and other planets in our solar system orbit the sun, and that our solar system orbits the center of the Milky Way. Did your science teacher have it wrong? Is everything you’ve learned about physics and gravity wrong?

The Earth Doesn’t Actually Orbit The Sun?

For all practical purposes, what you were taught wasn’t entirely wrong. The Earth does in fact orbit the sun. In the strictest sense, however, it doesn’t.

The sun and other planets each have their own gravity well which interact and pull on one another. The result of this, is that everything in an orbital system (like our solar system) orbit the center of mass of the system. This ‘center of mass’ is called the barycenter. The Earth, the sun and everything else in our solar system orbit this barycenter – not the sun.

Where Is The Barycenter?

In a single star system like ours, most of the time (but not always), the barycenter is located somewhere within the star itself. However, most barycenters continuously change as massive objects (like planets) orbit a star.

If an unusual alignment happens where a large percentage of mass is on one side of the star, the barycenter can exist outside of the star’s radius. In cases of 2 star systems, the barycenter will be located between the two stars. If the stars aren’t of the same mass, it will be closer to the heavier, or more massive one.

Now you will note in the diagram that there is a coordinate system (x y axis) to the far right on the x axis is the First point of Aries 0 degrees celestial longitude. You will also note a faint dashed white line that is the circumference or outer edge of the Sun. So the solar system barycenter and the sun’s location are dependent on the motion of the planets and other massive objects in the solar system.

And if you want all the gory detailed data re the position down to the .00000001 of a degree longitude you can go tohttp://www.cv.nrao.edu/~rfisher/Ephemerides/ephem_descr.html#eph_cont .

Now your first assignment is to go and find on the attached chart where the SSBC solar system barycenter is in 2014. Your next task will be to have a look at its path for the next few years say up to 2017.  The location of the SSBC for the period 2000-2050 (courtesy of L McNish) is shown in the black chart.

A dotted white circle indicates the circumference of the Sun. A segment (red line) in this chart indicates the path of the SSBC during the year 2016 at radius of 1. You will note that the SSBC traverses near and though the circumference of the Sun during 2016, similar to the SSBC passage in 2005 a year with a number of major hurricanes. In the next post I will be uploading the cosmic footprints for the dates during the 2016 hurricane season where the solar, lunar and galactic configurations are similar to those where past major events occurred.

Here endeth the lesson.

SSBC Location 2016

 

Location of Solar System Barycenter and Major North Atlantic Hurricanes

Please find below a diagram showing the celestial location (Cosmic Footprint) of the barycenter of the solar system with respect to the center of mass of the Sun at the time of the Atlantic Hurricanes which have had a central pressure of less than or equal to 910 mb, major Cat 5 cyclonic activity.

The graph shows the location of the barycenter (red and black dots) at the time of the major Cat 5 activity. The red circle is the circumference/surface of the Sun at a radius of 1. The plane of the diagram is coincident with the plane of the ecliptic. All the distances of the barycenter at the instants of the above cyclonic activity are based on the above unit which has been calculated by the NASA Horizons Group.http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?horizons. The direction of the barycenter from the Sun’s center is shown in relation to the First Point of Aries.

So we have 8 out of the 11 hurricanes in question occurring when the distance between the barycenter and the mass center of the Sun is ~ 1 or when the barycenter of the solar system is near the surface of the Sun.

 

Location of SSBC at Instant of Major Hurricane Max Intensity

2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

Observations of the extreme Atlantic hurricanes have shown that 8 of 11 of the major cyclonic events occurred when the SSBC is at or near a distance of 1 radius of the Sun from the center of the Sun (or at or near its surface). Given the previous posts re cyclonic activity and the location of the Solar System Barycenter, this post identifies the next hurricane season (2016) which has the potential for major cyclonic activity.

Recent work on the Lagrangian Points L4 and L5 points as well as the location of the moon and line nodes has opened the possibility that for the 2016, 2032 and other potential major hurricane seasons we may be able to identify the days during those seasons with the potential for extreme cyclonic activity.

So what can we observe about the 2016 hurricane season. It could be a long season with the first configuration occurring in late May on the 26th and the last one occurring on November 4th. The dates shown on the charts are not predictions for hurricane activity. They are configurations which are similar to where the maximum intensity of other major events have occurred. Hence, if a hurricane is in progress when one of these configurations occurs there is a possibility that it might reach its maximum intensity at or near the instant of the configuration.

One series of the configurations, which is of particular interest, is the three charts from August 27-September 1-September 6. The moon (blue line) will move counter clockwise from the L5 point to the L4 point (black lines) through the line of nodes (magenta line) which is conjunct with the Solar Earth axis during this motion. This configuration could be the basis for a hurricane to maintain its intensity for a number of days.

This series of configurations as well as the other charts that have been uploaded all occur when the SSBC is at a distance near or equal to 1 which is the reason the 2016 season has been identified as a possible severe hurricane season.

We are not suggesting that severe Atlantic cyclonic activity will not occur during the 2014 and 2015 seasons or after 2016. We are saying that the 2016 season best fits our observations sub 910mb North Atlantic cyclonic activity.20160526 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20160619 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20160630 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20160827 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20160901 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20160906 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20161005 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis 20161104 1200UT Cosmic Footprint Analysis